Volume 5, Issue 1, March 2019, Page: 22-28
Hydrological Risk Assessment of Gibe III Dam by Using L-Moment
Sintayehu Yadete Tola, Water Supply and Environmental Engineering, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
Abdella Kemal, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
Daniel Reddythota, Water Supply and Environmental Engineering, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
Received: Jan. 22, 2019;       Accepted: Mar. 7, 2019;       Published: Apr. 8, 2019
DOI: 10.11648/j.ajwse.20190501.14      View  236      Downloads  56
Abstract
A hydrological analysis for assessing the risk of dam overtopping is required for both dam designing and dam safety checking. There is enormous amount of water to be stored in the reservoir to provide valuable service such as hydroelectric power generation and flood control. However dams can cause catastrophic damage to both life and property if they experience performance failures due to overtopping and inadequate spillway design. The hydrological risk was computed from historical peak flow data of Gilgel Gibe near Abelti, Gojeb near Shebe and Wabi near Wolkite, of major rivers flowing towards Gibe III Dam, respectively. From the flood statistics of rivers, the general extreme value (GEV) distribution was fitted to peak flow using L-moment. In this research made an attempt, the extreme event or probability of maximum discharge occurrence at dam site analyzed by associating peak occurrence with the service life of Dam and estimated the hydrological risk at Gibe III Dam. It finds PWM method is very suitable for three river flow condition flowing toward Gibe III Dam. The hydrological risk at Gibe III predicted for 50, 100 and 150 years with respect of Discharge range of 2730m3/s to 3180m3/s was observed there is a risk decreases as return period increases.
Keywords
L-moment, Gibe III Dam, Hydrological Risk Assessment, General Extreme Value
To cite this article
Sintayehu Yadete Tola, Abdella Kemal, Daniel Reddythota, Hydrological Risk Assessment of Gibe III Dam by Using L-Moment, American Journal of Water Science and Engineering. Vol. 5, No. 1, 2019, pp. 22-28. doi: 10.11648/j.ajwse.20190501.14
Copyright
Copyright © 2019 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Reference
[1]
Luo JW, Chen LN, Liu H. (2013). Distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity. Phys A: Stat Mech Applic 382:6004–6014
[2]
Stedinger, J. R.; Griffis, V. W. (2012) Flood frequency analysis in the United States: Time to update. J. Hydrol. Eng., 13, 199–204.
[3]
The National Flood Risk Advisory Group. Flood risk management in Australia, National Flood Risk Advisory Group (NFRAG). Aust. J. Emerg. Manag. 2008, 23, 21–27. Luo, P.; He, B.; Takara, K.; Xiong, Y. E.; Nover, D.; Duan, W.; Fukushi, K. (2015). Historical assessment of Chinese and Japanese flood management policies and implications for managing future floods Environ. Sci. Policy, 48, 265–277.
[4]
Lave, L. B.; Balvanyos, T. Risk analysis and management of dam safety. Risk Anal. 1998, 18, 455–462.
[5]
Lempérière, F. (2017). Dams and Floods. Engineering 3, 144–149.
[6]
Sun, R. R.; Wang, X. L.; Zhou, Z. Y.; Ao, X. F.; Sun, X. P.; Song, M. R. (2014). Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part I: Model development. Nat. Hazards, 73, 1547–1568.
[7]
Goodarzi. E, Mirzaei. M, Shui. L. T., Ziaei. M. (2011). Evaluation dam overtopping risk based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analysisHydrol. Earth Syst. ScI. Discuss., 8, 9757-9796.
[8]
Shrestha, A. B.; Wake, C. P.; Dibb, J. E.; Mayewksi, P. A. (2000). Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large-scale climatological parameters. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 317–327.
[9]
Tullos, D.; Byron, E.; Galloway, G.; Obeysekera, J.; Prakash, O.; Sun, Y. H. (2016). Review of challenges of and practices for sustainable management of mountain flood hazards. Nat. Hazards, 83, 1763–1797.
[10]
Liu, L.; Li, X.; Xia, G. Y.; Jin, J. L.; Chen, G. W. (2016). Spatial fuzzy clustering approach to characterize flood risk in urban storm water drainage systems. Nat. Hazards, 83, 1469–1483.
[11]
Singh, M.; Kijko, A.; van den Berg, L. (2011). Seismic Risk Ranking for Large Dams in South Africa. Acta Geophys., 59, 72–90.
[12]
Lu Chen, Vijay P. Singh, Guo Shenglian, Zenchao hao and Tianyuan Li. (2012) Flood Coincidence Risk Analysis using Multivariate Copula Functions. J. Hydrol. Eng., 17(6), 742-755.
[13]
Erdik. T, Duricic. J, Van Gelder. P. H. A. J. M., The Probabilistic Assessment of Overtopping Reliability on Akyayik Dam. Journal of Civil Engineering, 2013, 17(7), 1810-1819
[14]
Cunnane, C. (1989). “Statistical distributions for flood frequency analysis.” World Meteorological Organization Operational Hydrology, Rep. No. 33, WMO-No. 718, Geneva, Switzerland.
[15]
Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R., and Wood, E. F. (1985), "An Appraisal of the Regional Flood Frequency Procedure in the UK Flood Studies Report," Hydrological Sciences Journal, 30, 85- 109.
[16]
Hosking, J. R. M.: L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics, J. Royal Statis. Soc., Series B, 52, 105–124, 1990.
[17]
Kite, G. W. (1977) Frequency and risk analyses in hydrology. Water Resources Publications, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
[18]
Hosking J. R. M. (1986). The theory of probability weighted moments. Research Rep. RC 12210. IBM Research Division: Yorktown Heights, NY; 160 pp.
[19]
Hosking J. R. M, Wallis J. R. (1997). Regional Frequency Analysis an Approach based on L-moments Cambridge University Press: New York.
[20]
Fridolf, T., (2004). Dam Safety in a hydrological perspective: case study of the historical water system of Sala Silver Mine. Thesis (Lic.). Stockholm: KTH – Royal Institute of Technology.
[21]
Yen, B. C. (1970). “Risk analysis in design of engineering projects.” J. Hydrol. Eng., ASCE, 96(HY4), 959–966.
[22]
Rao, A. R., and Hamed, K. H. (2000). Flood frequency analysis, CRC Press, London.
[23]
Jenkinson, A. F. (1955), "The Frequency Distribution of the Annual Maximum (or Minimum) of Meteorological Elements," Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 81, 158-171. (1969), "Statistics of Extremes," Technical Note 98, World Meteorological Office, Geneva.
[24]
Gringorten, I. I (1963). A plotting rule for extreme probability paper Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, 68, 813–814.
Browse journals by subject