The Effects of El Nino on Agricultural GDP of Ethiopia
Issue:
Volume 3, Issue 4, July 2017
Pages:
45-49
Received:
16 August 2017
Accepted:
8 September 2017
Published:
10 October 2017
Abstract: End hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition is at the heart of the sustainable development goals. At the same time, climate change is already impacting agriculture and making the challenge even more difficult. In many parts of the world, much of the year-to-year variation in climate is traced to the El Nino episode. This paper uses El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index to examine the effect of El Nino shock on agricultural GDP of Ethiopia. The paper employed Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in analysing 26 years time series data. Before regressing the data, activities such as lag selection, unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and diagnostics test were done. The result of the study shows that an incidence of El Nino phenomena truncate agricultural GDP of Ethiopia by 13.59 percent. The result is statistically significant at less than 5 percent significant level. And also 92.66 percent of the total variation in the model is explained by the explanatory variables. Thus the nation should work hard in adoption of water harvesting technology, irrigation, drought resistance and perennial crops to mitigate the consequence of El Nino shock.
Abstract: End hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition is at the heart of the sustainable development goals. At the same time, climate change is already impacting agriculture and making the challenge even more difficult. In many parts of the world, much of the year-to-year variation in climate is traced to the El Nino episode. This paper uses El N...
Show More
